NFL · resolved market
Will the Bengals and Commanders combine for 47 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49febf17674013b749be20a1a4de44b88f1d6e310ba05a2fa4a6102c9ac1028a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Under | 52c | 2,552$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.42 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Over | 48c | 2,082$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.63 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked Over | 49c | 1,600$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…2c30backed Under | 54c | 1,483$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.93 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Under | 51c | 1,075$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.42 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Over | 50c | 819.99$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Over | 48c | 699.99$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Over | 48c | 243.58$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Over | 49c | 216.37$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.35 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…ee8ebacked Over | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Under | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…664dbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Under | 52c | 52.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…455fbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…7708backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x456c…f8ddbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bengals and Commanders combine for 47 or more points?this page
- Will the Bengals beat the Commanders by 8 or more points?Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.