Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eb66fcfd5075fc86942e192993d5685d875ca7de79b809ba08a8e2aa7dc8d9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 921.78$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.25 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 733.2$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 675.06$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 33c | 307.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 65c | 249.83$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 8c | 210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 197.81$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 36c | 193.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 178.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 8c | 175.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 8c | 159.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 150.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 7c | 150.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 129.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94f…7e87backed Yes | 38c | 117.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 38c | 117.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 114.15$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 102.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 89.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 37c | 83.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 69.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 39c | 68.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 18c | 66.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 66.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 16c | 64.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 63.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 28c | 59.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 74c | 54.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 38c | 48.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 40.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…424bbacked Yes | 38c | 38.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 37.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 35.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 35.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd4…9370backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 64c | 31.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked No | 62c | 30.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 68c | 22.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…5c60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 64c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 17.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on July 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.