TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,930
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,050

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,930 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes43c578.41$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.4686952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes46c381.18$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.432,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes20c350.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.718,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes21c349.6$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.871,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes31c287.35$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6547136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c263.6$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.542,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c219.99$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.845,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No70c200$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6124546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No57c198.89$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.516046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked No68c190.27$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes16c179.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.879,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No70c170.47$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1492678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes29c166.62$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.696,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No60c163.56$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.364,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No70c151.41$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.634,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes36c141.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4494552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c141.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.073,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6784…7565backed Yes35c135.07$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.226451.6%33 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d54…a7febacked No65c134.78$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.73450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes19c130.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.553,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes37c129.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.368028.8%23 W · 57 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes8c128.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.249635.4%34 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No61c120.86$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.571,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c117$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.815,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes15c115.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.741,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2809…1652backed No80c102.67$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.013040%12 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8f4…f04cbacked No60c102.21$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0617440.8%71 W · 103 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No64c100.61$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8460054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No57c98.71$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes22c95.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9986226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No57c90.54$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.62,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes19c87.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.031,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes29c85.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e7…c275backed No71c84.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.778234.1%28 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No58c77.02$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.442,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No53c73.25$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.32,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No55c71.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3383459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes47c64.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c63.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.717,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c61.18$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8629443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b1…11d2backed No59c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3310553.3%56 W · 49 L+15.0wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No63c58.42$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.882,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked No67c57.73$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2514932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No67c54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8286949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf36…5516backed No55c52.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.381478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick64cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc55…838fbacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.411753%62 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.559960.6%60 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No67c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.451,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes41c48.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010746.7%50 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No79c47.08$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.051,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes43c46.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032958.7%193 W · 136 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes46c46.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0917144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No79c46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.664,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No56c45.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1717255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe39f…c040backed Yes25c41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3114832.4%48 W · 100 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No72c40.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3937669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked No53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8557747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes26c39.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2246240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No73c38.32$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.421,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes28c37.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4547239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No74c37.43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7391861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked No71c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1244945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec50…e521backed Yes42c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.811060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No58c34.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7994066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No64c31.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.162,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e37…c952backed Yes41c30.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.691338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+99.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7721472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No56c30.54$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.441,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No55c30.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5421264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No57c30.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.132,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f40…1ae0backed Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.57520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes38c29.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.125,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No59c28.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5417759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No55c27.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3835264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No61c26.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.231,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes42c25.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.629137.4%34 W · 57 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd6a…4614backed Yes50c25.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5110246.1%47 W · 55 L-11.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed No59c24.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.214744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No65c22.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.246,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.121,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No67c19.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.432,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No56c18.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0624164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed36…ac89backed No56c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.921376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No62c17.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8742754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9a…8193backed No57c17.58$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.482050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No71c17.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No71c17.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No64c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7667158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.717025.3%43 W · 127 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.