Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x833ab258255e5b4298ca9de1edc92a6f619e50548c55f84837f195ed7546add9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 43c | 578.41$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.46 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 381.18$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 350.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 349.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 31c | 287.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 263.6$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 219.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 57c | 198.89$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 68c | 190.27$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 179.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 170.47$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 166.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 163.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 70c | 151.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 141.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 141.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 35c | 135.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…a7febacked No | 65c | 134.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 130.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 37c | 129.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 8c | 128.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 120.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 117$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 115.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed No | 80c | 102.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 60c | 102.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 100.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 57c | 98.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 95.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 90.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 87.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 29c | 85.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed No | 71c | 84.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 77.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 73.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 71.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 64.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 63.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 61.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 58.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked No | 67c | 57.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…5516backed No | 55c | 52.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 47.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 43c | 46.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 46c | 46.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 56c | 45.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 72c | 40.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 26c | 39.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 73c | 38.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 28c | 37.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 37.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec50…e521backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 34.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 31.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…c952backed Yes | 41c | 30.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 56c | 30.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 55c | 30.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 30.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…1ae0backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 29.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 59c | 28.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 55c | 27.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 26.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 42c | 25.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 50c | 25.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 59c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 56c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…ac89backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 62c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…8193backed No | 57c | 17.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on July 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.