Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab0d8bbb38d382f9bc27b9322f4e0eda559abf271bd9c714842aada6b1f677e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 35c | 511.86$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.54 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 72c | 492.25$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.97 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 41c | 345.21$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 234.76$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 224.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 206$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 187.51$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 12c | 158.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 157.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 59c | 139.74$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 110.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 103.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 68cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 98.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 86.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 83.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 50c | 80.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 31c | 71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 51c | 70.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 64c | 66.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 54c | 66.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 71c | 58.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 57c | 52.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 51.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 50.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 45.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 42.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 45c | 40.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 70c | 39.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 47c | 37.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 57c | 36.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfd…aacbbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 28.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 46c | 27.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 27.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 46c | 23.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 44c | 23.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 23.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 59c | 21.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 76c | 19.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…ac89backed No | 62c | 18.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on July 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.