Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb839e9c1902cff6c247c8cafe1d03de5de0db9f7b5a8bedc7e095cf12cd734ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 40c | 3,393$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.89 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 55c | 1,508$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.88 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 1,180$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed Yes | 10c | 754.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 45c | 670.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.49 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 619.99$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 38c | 562.57$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 545$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 59c | 480.66$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.81 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 55c | 376.52$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.31 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 373$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 297.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 284.11$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 43c | 263.84$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.31 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 254.21$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.29 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed No | 55c | 232.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.61 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 215.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 210.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 206.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 192$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 40c | 182.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 172.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…b542backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 40c | 167.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 147.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 51c | 143.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 52c | 134.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 39c | 127.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 121.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 121.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 116.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…24f9backed Yes | 62c | 114.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 49c | 110.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 62c | 107.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 99.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 93.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 58c | 87.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 78.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 77.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…bac6backed No | 55c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 56c | 67.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 59c | 65.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 61.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7323…1affbacked No | 61c | 59.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 58.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 35c | 55.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 33c | 52.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f22…e113backed Yes | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 44c | 47.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 31c | 47.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 46.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Yes | 39c | 42.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 42.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 30c | 40.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 54c | 39.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…9cfbbacked No | 64c | 37.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 42c | 37.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…5c67backed No | 62c | 36.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 33c | 36.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f7…36c9backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 66c | 34.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…ca5bbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…b302backed Yes | 40c | 28.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 46c | 27.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…0a22backed No | 65c | 27.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 48c | 25.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 65c | 24.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee86…088fbacked No | 55c | 23.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 55c | 23.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…cb6abacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 60c | 22.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 66c | 21.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…1b1ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…71a3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 64c | 19.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 10?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.