Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3aa26b0716b5178f065829ba88e2c515c40d33464333c1707459d9a792e3f29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 70c | 476.8$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.85 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc1…eba2backed Yes | 24c | 436$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +184.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 416$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 36c | 407.19$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.93 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 29c | 313.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 306.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 8c | 281.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 67c | 281$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.41 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 262.71$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 27c | 238.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 51c | 230.78$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.24 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 229.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.89 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed Yes | 11c | 222.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 27c | 209.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 203.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 186.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 179.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 176$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 147.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 71c | 140.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 122$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 112.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 110.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 76c | 95.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 92.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 91.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 37c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked No | 61c | 79.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 23c | 65.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 78c | 63.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 60.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked Yes | 26c | 55.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 53.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 41c | 51.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 40c | 48.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 64c | 47.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 30c | 44.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x196e…9277backed Yes | 79c | 37.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 35.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 32.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 34c | 30.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 57c | 29.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…736cbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.4wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…ca5bbacked No | 61c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…b434backed Yes | 77c | 19.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 10?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.