Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4060afdf6462fc2807d9c4fc8c1ca24d8e97b3be79a0ce30a7d94e28d1ad9fd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 0c | 28,293$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed Yes | 1c | 10,817$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 37c | 888.22$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.75 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…1befbacked Yes | 43c | 400.76$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 388.45$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 388$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 45c | 332.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd70c…7cedbacked Yes | 35c | 286.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 283.58$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 76c | 276.24$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 40c | 262.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 250.66$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 35c | 247.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 235$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…985abacked Yes | 39c | 228.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 66c | 214.65$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 33c | 199.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 34c | 199.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 71c | 192.07$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 37c | 179.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 70c | 174.37$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…9840backed Yes | 44c | 170.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 166.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 156.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 60c | 151.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 37c | 148.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 40c | 147.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 144.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 38c | 142.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 142.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 139.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 135.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 36c | 134.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 133.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 121.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 33c | 119.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 118.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 118.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 39c | 115.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 28c | 113.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20a…7434backed Yes | 33c | 111.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 107.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 39c | 107.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 106.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 47c | 102.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 36c | 101.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 100.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…e269backed Yes | 37c | 99.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…8366backed No | 56c | 98.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 38c | 97.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…3053backed Yes | 34c | 96.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…c25abacked Yes | 39c | 89.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 38c | 85.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 74c | 83.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 34c | 81.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 81.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 80.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 79.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 40c | 79.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 78.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 41c | 78.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 53c | 77.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 70.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 68.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 67.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 65.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 36c | 64.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 61.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 58.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 65c | 58.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 43c | 57.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 57.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 38c | 53.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 38c | 53.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791f…c354backed Yes | 39c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 39c | 52.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…9125backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…fdebbacked Yes | 40c | 51.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc2…dcdebacked Yes | 39c | 49.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 48.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 60c | 48.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 41c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 43c | 46.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 45.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.