TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,828
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,238

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,828 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes0c28,293$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7917443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c16…d262backed Yes1c10,817$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.487757.1%44 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2840…ae07backed Yes1c1,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113773%27 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick67cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes37c888.22$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.759634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79a8…1befbacked Yes43c400.76$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c388.45$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.384,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c388$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.735,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes45c332.59$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd70c…7cedbacked Yes35c286.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No67c283.58$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.632,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No76c276.24$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0976755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes40c262.57$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6816724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c250.66$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes35c247.3$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.456434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c235$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.753,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd992…985abacked Yes39c228.19$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No66c214.65$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9719057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes33c199.59$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4460121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes34c199.23$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.147628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed No71c192.07$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.696358.7%37 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes37c179.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No70c174.37$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4671159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ef…9840backed Yes44c170.71$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No59c166.96$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.413,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes20c156.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.375,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No60c151.27$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7611164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes37c148.3$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.591,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes40c147.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.774734%16 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes32c144.03$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.33,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes38c142.2$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6929732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes34c142.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.441,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No66c139.89$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c135.64$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.625,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes36c134.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.791,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No73c133.96$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.621,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No68c121.82$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1465965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No69c120$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes33c119.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes31c118.77$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.062,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No59c118.23$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.492,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes39c115.73$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7320534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes28c113.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.331319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd20a…7434backed Yes33c111.47$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+36.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes41c107.76$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes39c107.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.832,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No59c106.5$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.552,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes47c102.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.821,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes36c101.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No54c100.93$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.81,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa09d…af80backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4521150.7%107 W · 104 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1bc…e269backed Yes37c99.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.451442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf3…8366backed No56c98.59$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes38c97.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7234846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10fe…3053backed Yes34c96.63$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a0…c25abacked Yes39c89.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes38c85.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.54540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No74c83.02$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4846667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes34c81.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.958134.6%28 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c81.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c80.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.113,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes28c79.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5688028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes40c79.27$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7156543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No69c78.87$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.391,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes41c78.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3828737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No53c77.33$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.091,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c70.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.329,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.672,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No58c68.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.652,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No70c67.93$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.072,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No58c65.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.492,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes36c64.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2117144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No57c61.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.43,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No61c61.18$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.072,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.214043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.510439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes37c59.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.167633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No65c58.18$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.382,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x237b…9f36backed No65c58.17$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.593262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes43c57.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9337355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No55c57.05$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.772,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes38c53.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes38c53.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x791f…c354backed Yes39c53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.58944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31ea…46d5backed Yes39c52.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.354323.3%10 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x273c…9125backed Yes38c52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf713…fdebbacked Yes40c51.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.461233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.516045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes21c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.371,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed No61c49.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.55547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcc2…dcdebacked Yes39c49.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No59c48.69$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.022,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No60c48.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes36c48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2819531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes41c47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2733139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5059…5263backed Yes43c46.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No60c46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.281,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No65c45.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.922,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.