TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,635 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7231…5afebacked Yes14c682.14$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.829634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes14c457.97$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1216724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes9c438$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2831319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes15c432.88$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.642,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes12c349.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4229732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c346.76$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes16c341.03$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8534533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No74c313.77$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.43,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No76c282.5$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1276755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes41c246.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No78c235.61$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.273,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb664…b752backed Yes15c202.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes14c199.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.640025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes12c186.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.261,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes30c184.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10fe…3053backed Yes7c169.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes11c159.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.520534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes15c155.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0337355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes18c150$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.654734%16 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ef…9840backed Yes15c145.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No69c139.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.191,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes12c138.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5910439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80cb…4629backed Yes15c137.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015321.6%33 W · 120 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes13c135.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0456434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes14c134.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.451,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes16c131.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6868645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes18c106.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7119217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No72c105.35$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.72,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes26c105.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.54540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No78c102.91$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.911,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaa6…c1e6backed Yes16c101.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.86933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…5645backed Yes20c101.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a4…5926backed Yes15c100.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+62.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153514.3%5 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes42c98.9$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes20c97.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.097,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes11c94.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.283,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd13…94e5backed Yes15c92.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.261414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-57%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No78c86.28$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.332,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No77c85.29$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4460121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes20c80.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8511724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01eb…b04abacked Yes29c79.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.99341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No58c76.72$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.221,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked No66c75.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes17c75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7518814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes18c74.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3327421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes31c71.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.445,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes22c70.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.65,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes16c70.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.438337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes38c69.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.64447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No79c67.23$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.334,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c64.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.377,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fa…4780backed Yes16c64.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No72c60.54$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.912,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1816045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.94235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes43c48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6419531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ea…46d5backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204323.3%10 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No69c46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c45.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes29c44.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No77c42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.731050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No71c41.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9638961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x273c…9125backed No74c41.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.61637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes33c40.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5134846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No69c37.32$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6361752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No80c37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.543,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No79c32.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.732,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c30.02$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.018,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x791f…c354backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes42c29.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4663538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No69c28.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7228270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No75c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No64c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.181,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd992…985abacked Yes45c23.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.872128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No74c23.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0615669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd8…6083backed No80c23.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.664459.1%26 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No75c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.571464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No69c21.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.742,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc86f…9bcfbacked No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41353.8%7 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick74cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd10…99b9backed No64c19.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.025752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No76c14.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5279255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.