TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,874

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd10…7544backed No4c2,102$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.533548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes64c1,740$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.4745130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes47c1,494$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.1516724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes22c786.07$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.2217140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes42c718.47$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.899,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No19c625.9$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.15,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x273c…9125backed Yes15c545.86$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.011637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes19c524.2$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.781,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No60c438.45$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.3276755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes44c436.88$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.381,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No50c430.29$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.873,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79a8…1befbacked Yes46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes42c384.59$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.1510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d31…2f85backed No58c370.68$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.07922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes41c363.11$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.7912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No55c356.2$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.423,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No6c343.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes36c305.4$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.1756434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No55c289.26$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.112,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes20c271$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.539744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed Yes43c270$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.78361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed No53c265.09$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3611947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c254.92$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No50c245.49$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.971,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed Yes24c233.54$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.6332310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes23c233.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.821,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes10c229.96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.842,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes33c216.82$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.4118337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No47c216.44$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3211164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes47c211.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4330849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No56c204.45$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2619057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No29c202.26$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No37c202$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.244,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd956…4d9dbacked No53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed No52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed No55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11088028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes6c200$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1899425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1031319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea55…558fbacked Yes41c199.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1181931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd939…5314backed No55c199.43$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.86616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x828b…87a6backed Yes19c197.36$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.867441.9%31 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d4…34e1backed Yes54c192.41$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.75475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+160.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No60c188.48$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.822,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No52c185.77$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.232,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked No60c185.27$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb542…6cfebacked Yes52c183.49$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.491656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…8b39backed Yes25c182.25$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.972128.6%6 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+74.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d07…36bfbacked No54c180.26$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.272157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No59c179.54$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4571159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No39c178.94$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3660121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed No79c177.69$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.766358.7%37 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd992…985abacked Yes49c174.26$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.332128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes49c172.95$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.461,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c0…a805backed No57c170.29$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.167558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes42c168.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No53c157.75$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.452,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf9e…4726backed No76c155.23$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No54c155$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.32,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes57c153.75$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.595,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes7c150$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1398134.6%28 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No56c149.7$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x01eb…b04abacked Yes28c143.26$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.719341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No20c141.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.641,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes12c138.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.951,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes21c137.3$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.653145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes30c134.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.644734%16 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No39c131.37$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.551,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No58c130.88$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9383459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No77c129.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10051762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes41c128.45$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3812941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No47c126.42$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.822,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes60c124.51$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.514540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes45c122.46$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.625946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No55c122$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.673,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No55c121.82$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4865965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes41c120.57$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5718534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No53c120$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.41,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed No54c118.83$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2733…5ae8backed Yes44c118.21$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.345733.3%19 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No57c117.78$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.338,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc90f…55e4backed No10c117.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-65.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe1e4…b4dabacked Yes43c115.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.174571.1%32 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes26c113.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.742,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes53c111.03$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3917144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No68c110$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.645,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No55c105.73$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cbb…ca06backed Yes44c105.03$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.12857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddf3…8366backed No55c103.85$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No59c103.54$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.335,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fe…3053backed Yes50c100.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.78650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes30c100.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.821272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes28c100.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.78,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.962,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.881848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8cd…956bbacked No76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa09d…af80backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5621150.7%107 W · 104 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.