Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ac3753dc89ec2c0485a8c705672fa43a78475a95b906c7463b597b4bf6fd801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd10…7544backed No | 4c | 2,102$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 64c | 1,740$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.47 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 47c | 1,494$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.15 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 22c | 786.07$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.22 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 42c | 718.47$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 19c | 625.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…9125backed Yes | 15c | 545.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.01 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 524.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.78 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 60c | 438.45$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.32 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 44c | 436.88$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.38 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 430.29$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…1befbacked Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 384.59$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…2f85backed No | 58c | 370.68$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 363.11$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 356.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 6c | 343.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 36c | 305.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.17 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 289.26$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 20c | 271$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.53 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed Yes | 43c | 270$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.7 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed No | 53c | 265.09$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.36 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 254.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 50c | 245.49$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 24c | 233.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.63 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 233.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.82 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 229.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.84 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 33c | 216.82$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 47c | 216.44$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 47c | 211.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 56c | 204.45$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.26 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 29c | 202.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 202$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd956…4d9dbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…558fbacked Yes | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd939…5314backed No | 55c | 199.43$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed Yes | 19c | 197.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.86 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…34e1backed Yes | 54c | 192.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +160.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 188.48$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 185.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 60c | 185.27$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…6cfebacked Yes | 52c | 183.49$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed Yes | 25c | 182.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.97 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d07…36bfbacked No | 54c | 180.26$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 59c | 179.54$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 39c | 178.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 79c | 177.69$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…985abacked Yes | 49c | 174.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 49c | 172.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 57c | 170.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 42c | 168.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 157.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9e…4726backed No | 76c | 155.23$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 155$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 153.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 149.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 28c | 143.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 20c | 141.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 12c | 138.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes | 21c | 137.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 30c | 134.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 39c | 131.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 58c | 130.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 129.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 41c | 128.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 126.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 60c | 124.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 45c | 122.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 122$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 55c | 121.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 41c | 120.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 53c | 120$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 54c | 118.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 44c | 118.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 117.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…55e4backed No | 10c | 117.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked Yes | 43c | 115.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 113.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 53c | 111.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 105.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…ca06backed Yes | 44c | 105.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…8366backed No | 55c | 103.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 103.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…3053backed Yes | 50c | 100.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 30c | 100.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 100.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…956bbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.