Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x809b695481bca7c2eddb11ad9ed9b3ca8341ee9f33d1e86fe1344ed509dea3f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 38c | 15,342$5,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,883.87 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 62c | 14,963$9,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,728.66 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes | 37c | 10,000$3,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,717.29 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes | 38c | 7,271$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,752.47 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…93debacked Yes | 41c | 5,920$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed No | 64c | 3,711$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…9b4abacked No | 56c | 3,103$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked No | 60c | 2,788$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 38c | 2,633$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 63c | 2,508$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.37 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked No | 64c | 2,439$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…df1fbacked No | 58c | 2,401$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 35c | 2,348$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.87 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 2,301$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.75 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 53c | 2,231$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 2,088$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.85 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 62c | 2,017$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.09 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5509…7212backed Yes | 45c | 1,990$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 63c | 1,912$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab0…bd9cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,860$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…c149backed Yes | 39c | 1,842$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.51 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 1,767$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.97 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 37c | 1,587$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 56c | 1,535$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 61c | 1,401$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.35 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 63c | 1,353$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.13 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 36c | 1,177$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2332…3fc5backed No | 59c | 1,106$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 1,086$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.57 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 63c | 1,049$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.87 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked No | 59c | 1,045$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 1,038$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.96 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 60c | 999.88$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.95 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 996.98$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 39c | 965.95$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.38 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 40c | 945.05$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.88 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 876.92$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.93 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 852.17$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.46 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 36c | 808.56$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.61 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 796.1$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.43 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 788.54$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.65 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 60c | 788$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 65c | 717.5$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.17 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 38c | 699.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc946…1825backed Yes | 37c | 695$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb87…d3a5backed Yes | 35c | 666.33$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…3a16backed No | 55c | 624$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 600$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 562$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.69 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 506.04$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.1 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed No | 66c | 489.8$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 475$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.3 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb785…b54abacked No | 63c | 473.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 35c | 473.67$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 39c | 452$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 57c | 438.24$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 36c | 429.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 429.24$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.73 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Yes | 38c | 378$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 371.66$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed No | 65c | 368.37$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked No | 57c | 363.33$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 61c | 341.29$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 62c | 317.93$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 305.5$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.75 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 297.18$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.43 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6471…457abacked No | 56c | 239.02$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 41c | 234.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…fc9bbacked No | 67c | 231.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 39c | 231.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 35c | 230.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 225.9$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Yes | 38c | 223.68$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 36c | 205$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…cf02backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 38c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…8927backed Yes | 38c | 192$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…775fbacked Yes | 38c | 192$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8397…0dbbbacked Yes | 39c | 184.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 56c | 181$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c7…4480backed Yes | 35c | 180$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 43c | 170.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 62c | 163.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…3fbcbacked No | 62c | 157$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…fffdbacked Yes | 32c | 155.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…b621backed No | 66c | 152.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47d5…500bbacked No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes | 38c | 145$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…7320backed Yes | 34c | 144.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…6a31backed Yes | 36c | 138.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 42c | 136.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 38c | 135$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 39c | 135$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…72ecbacked Yes | 35c | 114.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +218%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…7f40backed Yes | 39c | 112$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May?this page
- Will annual inflation be 3.3% or less in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.4% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.6% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.9% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?Yes won
- Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.