TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,670 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes38c15,342$5,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,883.8722433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No62c14,963$9,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,728.668632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes37c10,000$3,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,717.293426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes38c7,271$2,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,752.472334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f0d…93debacked Yes41c5,920$2,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,430.81250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed No64c3,711$2,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.81553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+208.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x264d…9b4abacked No56c3,103$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,370.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked No60c2,788$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes38c2,633$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No63c2,508$1,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.373661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+182.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked No64c2,439$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.84560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bbd…df1fbacked No58c2,401$1,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes35c2,348$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.877122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No60c2,301$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.752272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No53c2,231$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.151566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c2,088$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.851369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No62c2,017$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.0923330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5509…7212backed Yes45c1,990$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No63c1,912$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.931464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab0…bd9cbacked Yes42c1,860$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.28933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+16%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c69…c149backed Yes39c1,842$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.512236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+208.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes39c1,767$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.9719931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes37c1,587$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.331330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No56c1,535$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.81070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No61c1,401$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.352560%15 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed No63c1,353$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.134231%13 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes36c1,177$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2332…3fc5backed No59c1,106$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No63c1,086$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.574360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No63c1,049$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.871936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5351…c7edbacked No59c1,045$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No62c1,038$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.961872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No60c999.88$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.9511334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No63c996.98$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.661163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes39c965.95$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.388528.2%24 W · 61 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes40c945.05$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.887030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c876.92$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.9315148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No61c852.17$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.463450%17 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes36c808.56$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.612623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c796.1$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.434568.9%31 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes39c788.54$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.6514325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No60c788$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No65c717.5$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.171866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes38c699.99$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc946…1825backed Yes37c695$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb87…d3a5backed Yes35c666.33$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5287…3a16backed No55c624$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.86944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No63c600$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.01955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No59c562$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.693666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No62c506.04$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.12466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed No66c489.8$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No63c475$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.33663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb785…b54abacked No63c473.79$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes35c473.67$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Yes39c452$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.28425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-50.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No57c438.24$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.272142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes36c429.99$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.940%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c429.24$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.733873.7%28 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xffef…dabfbacked Yes38c378$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No62c371.66$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.02955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed No65c368.37$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.81714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked No57c363.33$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.133138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No61c341.29$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.632040%8 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No62c317.93$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.641050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No61c305.5$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.752965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No61c297.18$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.432060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes43c250$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.54254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6471…457abacked No56c239.02$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes41c234.72$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.472839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16f6…fc9bbacked No67c231.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.51060%6 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes39c231.49$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.54425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes35c230.01$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3540%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c225.9$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.551172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Yes38c223.68$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes36c205$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa156…cf02backed Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes38c200$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No54c199.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9c…8927backed Yes38c192$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x508f…775fbacked Yes38c192$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8397…0dbbbacked Yes39c184.62$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked No56c181$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No55c180$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.23066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No60c180$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53c7…4480backed Yes35c180$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes43c170.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.236023.3%14 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No62c163.21$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.651361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4238…3fbcbacked No62c157$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda4c…fffdbacked Yes32c155.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2b…b621backed No66c152.66$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47d5…500bbacked No66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes38c145$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c3f…7320backed Yes34c144.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3799…6a31backed Yes36c138.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes42c136.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.312937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes38c135$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Yes39c135$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b57…72ecbacked Yes35c114.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+218%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1536…7f40backed Yes39c112$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+43.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.