Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x016a4bca735c197c1d5171a427ab46da9c58f29d292bb4b706c5ff5b189e04f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 33c | 7,054$2,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.35 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 5,886$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.23 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 21c | 4,540$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 35c | 3,383$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.87 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 20c | 2,459$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.58 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 2,127$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.79 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 12c | 2,095$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.78 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 71c | 2,014$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.53 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 64c | 1,912$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0b…5f9dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,900$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes | 38c | 1,403$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 70c | 1,403$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.29 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked No | 67c | 1,399$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.14 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,394$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 68c | 1,327$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…93debacked No | 75c | 1,209$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 36c | 1,200$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 8c | 1,006$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 31c | 903.39$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.14 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 8c | 890.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 884.34$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.43 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 25c | 799.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…3a16backed Yes | 31c | 785.42$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc946…1825backed Yes | 36c | 743$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 65c | 711$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.79 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…dfdabacked Yes | 8c | 689.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 36c | 678.69$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 34c | 669.18$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.58 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…df1fbacked Yes | 10c | 602.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 591.22$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…f2bebacked Yes | 7c | 554.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 546.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…da72backed Yes | 22c | 500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 450$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…6177backed Yes | 11c | 393.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 8c | 382.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 351.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2332…3fc5backed Yes | 17c | 348$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d01…6ca9backed No | 63c | 343.94$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 321.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 300$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba8…2bdfbacked No | 78c | 269.95$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 230$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 30c | 224$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 11c | 209.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f8…1a89backed No | 76c | 208.05$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 64c | 205.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412d…2e73backed Yes | 9c | 204$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db4…410fbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 15c | 187.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 12c | 186.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…fc9bbacked No | 66c | 181.59$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 8c | 179.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…cf02backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Yes | 35c | 148$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed Yes | 28c | 145.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1135…4c1bbacked No | 62c | 140.23$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 140.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 75c | 137.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 72c | 132$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 33c | 131.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 14c | 125.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 35c | 112.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 35c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 106.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 106.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…287fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be5…985ebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 67c | 96.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes | 11c | 94.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…b621backed No | 64c | 93.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 32c | 92.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7858…d698backed No | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 89.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35ef…1dd4backed Yes | 30c | 84.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 33c | 82.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…105fbacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 30c | 61.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 30c | 59.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4b…e5a8backed Yes | 37c | 54.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 72c | 50.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…bdd1backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e7…7389backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 40.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 34.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 18.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 65c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?this page
- Will annual inflation be 3.3% or less in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.4% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.6% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.9% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?Yes won
- Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.