Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc90996b9dcd8a412afc38bc8a3e73f364a4099ccee581cdbf14b9eb34ddf287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,374$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.39 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb785…b54abacked Yes | 9c | 3,837$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,619$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | +511.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3617…3753backed Yes | 11c | 2,377$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 1c | 1,661$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 60 | 5%3 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 5c | 1,577$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…561dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,464$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,443$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 4c | 1,190$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked Yes | 6c | 1,134$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,076$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…75f7backed Yes | 10c | 1,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 6c | 986.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 968.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 5c | 931.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…b22cbacked Yes | 1c | 918.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…b621backed Yes | 3c | 881.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 2c | 809.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…2c14backed Yes | 7c | 706.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked Yes | 5c | 673.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 667.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 597.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 568.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 518.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes | 17c | 499.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 487.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…72ecbacked Yes | 6c | 480.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +218%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 472.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514a…dad1backed Yes | 3c | 453.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…69c3backed Yes | 6c | 440.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe4…26b6backed Yes | 2c | 436.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 424.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4269…737cbacked Yes | 12c | 340.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 4c | 302.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 13c | 257.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 6c | 247.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 245$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 7c | 160.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…d871backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 13c | 91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May?this page
- Will annual inflation be 3.3% or less in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.4% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.6% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 3.9% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?Yes won
- Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.