TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,090 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes37c13,725$5,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,682.622433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes30c12,487$3,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,767.363426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No62c10,954$6,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,794.38632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes27c8,847$2,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,474.52334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No60c5,509$3,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,298.323661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+182.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed No54c4,983$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.944231%13 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No52c2,492$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.281369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No69c2,253$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.812272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No76c2,232$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.161566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No75c1,895$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.423330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No75c1,776$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.631464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes48c1,692$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.719931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No39c1,659$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.14360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No77c1,543$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.691070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed No61c1,491$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.041553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+208.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5509…7212backed Yes43c1,444$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No74c1,403$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.432560%15 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No70c1,291$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.71250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c1,266$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.4215148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c69…c149backed Yes42c1,217$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.82236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+208.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes42c1,209$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.78528.2%24 W · 61 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed No55c1,177$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.935145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09e7…2737backed Yes70c1,167$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked Yes37c1,096$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.56560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No55c1,096$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.377122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No73c1,035$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.181872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No52c1,012$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.761163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes44c1,000$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.281330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No52c999.99$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52011334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x264d…6f2bbacked No59c923.6$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.912147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes46c900$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4861070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+41.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No72c858.56$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.881936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes41c797.06$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.093655.6%20 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No60c796.1$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.324568.9%31 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f0d…93debacked Yes45c794.52$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.081250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb87…d3a5backed Yes51c784.25$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.25850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes41c750$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.0414325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No76c717$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.011866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes34c673.79$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.967030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2db…84eabacked Yes45c666.17$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.17616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No39c665.66$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.55955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ed…1ae4backed Yes52c664.94$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes49c610.07$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c602.68$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.133873.7%28 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes44c550.21$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.762623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No59c548.34$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.852466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0be5…0db3backed Yes28c527$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+258.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47d5…500bbacked Yes50c503.71$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c501$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.153663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c6…a105backed Yes48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2556827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9c7…147abacked No54c499.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes46c409$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No47c405$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.252965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No70c377.04$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.642060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No76c367.35$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.611050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No52c361.74$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.491172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No72c352.86$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.62955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes46c336.38$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.397525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c329$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.633666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No60c322$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.623857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes47c320.64$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1510836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5351…c7edbacked Yes49c306.78$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.11450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No69c300$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3b…9240backed No72c300$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19e0…d1aebacked No48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes40c272.65$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No73c266.38$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.471656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No52c264.94$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.812941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No72c263.03$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.851668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No53c254.44$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.54254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfab0…bd9cbacked Yes40c243$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+16%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No53c236.25$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0340%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed No70c227.7$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-50.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No54c222$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.881729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-43.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No55c210.1$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.763450%17 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3799…6a31backed Yes48c209.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b57…72ecbacked Yes29c207.48$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.48933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+218%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes48c206.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda4c…fffdbacked Yes51c201$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.73728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…0d61backed No55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+75.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1061668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+59.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d01…6ca9backed Yes22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes24c200$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1536523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa156…cf02backed Yes22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes44c195.4$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.432142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1faf…f652backed Yes49c178.82$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d13…0237backed No49c175.13$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16f6…fc9bbacked No76c166$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.261060%6 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ccd…6e3cbacked No77c161.54$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No76c160$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.23066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d6d…3096backed No71c159.52$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7601…7873backed No71c154.1$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked No78c152.6$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3088…2391backed Yes22c150$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+62.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed No47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5287…3a16backed Yes21c149.25$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.91944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2123…1340backed No69c142.06$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.