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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,367 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c339.93$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.48,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No52c328.67$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.6310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No17c261.39$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.452,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes56c240.92$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.145,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes48c240$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.41,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No10c199.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011519.1%22 W · 93 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-26.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4035…206dbacked Yes49c195.82$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.87977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+41.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes67c150.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.536,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No17c145.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes45c133.32$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3382742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No43c127.62$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.359,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes46c127.24$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.024,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No55c122.2$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7537355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No55c122.2$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.751,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c111.61$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes45c111.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.071,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes46c110.7$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.781,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes65c109.94$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9622645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No29c102.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.394,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes50c99.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.262,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No51c96$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9627461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes51c88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.741,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No46c75.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8429345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No50c71.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.982,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No52c69.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1917633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No53c69.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.052,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes76c68.45$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.376,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed Yes48c62.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7524546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes47c56.9$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.959144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes45c56.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3118043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No46c53.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.845253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e90…2005backed Yes47c53.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.011631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1049…8cc3backed Yes46c52.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.624242.9%18 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes46c52.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5887437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes39c51.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.851,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes39c51.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3332738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed Yes49c46.71$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2415449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No54c45.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8133746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes45c44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.246148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No55c43.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.622849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No61c42.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9771649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes36c42.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9447738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes47c41.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.878,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880a…308ebacked Yes48c38.18$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.912050%10 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2c…9642backed No49c35.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes46c35.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.412,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No53c35.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes52c30.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.942,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb430…efc9backed Yes46c30.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.118231.7%26 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7c…5dadbacked Yes60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.13452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No55c29.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3416859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes67c29.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7555954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd85d…3700backed Yes64c28.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.412365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7882268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes56c27.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.331,27534%433 W · 842 L+46.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb51…aee5backed Yes59c27.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes57c26.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.48234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes57c26.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2161676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x2bd2…bce9backed Yes75c25.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.52771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No47c23.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.774,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa052…925abacked No48c22.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.872227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1a1…ea66backed No54c22.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.055962.7%37 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6a…4614backed Yes48c21.21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0310246.1%47 W · 55 L-11.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No49c21.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.411,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No48c20.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0823547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…8eb1backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c19.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.591,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked No53c19.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes55c18.73$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.414450%22 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes72c15.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4735264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed Yes72c15.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2817759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes76c13.48$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2125947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.