TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,365
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,365 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes18c548.89$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.565,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes24c503.73$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes17c499.67$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.284,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No72c496.77$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.668,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x521f…80cdbacked No79c380.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.292176.2%16 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes28c328.19$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8971649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes22c251.04$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.052,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes7c249.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.692,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes18c247.86$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.762,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No79c175.54$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5192678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9af…7722backed Yes29c174.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.474228.6%12 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c168.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.026,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No50c154.56$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.222,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes19c148.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1929345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes22c128.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.981,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes21c122.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.243,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes17c116.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes22c106.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415915.7%25 W · 134 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5618368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes21c87.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed Yes61c81.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.738560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67f4…f91bbacked No80c80$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No72c77.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.581,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes20c75.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.281,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes37c72.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3927051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No79c64.48$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.34,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No78c63.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3424262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No72c62.97$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6337355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes32c62.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.812,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes24c62.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0722849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes21c61.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8926256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes21c57.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0254253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0751…073abacked No72c56.53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6619255.2%106 W · 86 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes26c52.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.721,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No72c50.41$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2727852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96ee…0662backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27530.7%23 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes28c36.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2777555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x047b…83b1backed Yes37c32.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9913452.2%70 W · 64 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.284,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No80c31.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.412,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No74c30.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9416859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No78c29.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.646457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No71c21.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4127247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.454234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.31,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed No77c19.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3515449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No79c16.82$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.538073.8%59 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.