TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$254,109
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$247,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,109 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xacbc…7cc3backed No14c30,849$4,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,291.51850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked No6c12,514$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.29175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-91.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd868…3e1dbacked No11c8,420$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43d…8a2abacked No5c8,045$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…179abacked No8c6,542$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-88.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No6c5,816$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.01520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No4c4,747$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.522429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No11c4,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No13c4,420$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.925633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c3,637$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.551,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No7c3,548$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.1426312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaad…d0e7backed No5c3,213$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No6c2,767$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.585028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…8860backed No5c2,707$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc327…a208backed No8c2,545$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.9837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x693c…a7edbacked No1c2,514$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6271…784ebacked No4c2,177$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x789e…3bb1backed No8c1,816$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.561926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9541…6e5cbacked Yes71c1,703$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-53.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No7c1,648$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.593042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No5c1,622$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.811388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No5c1,604$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.832674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No2c1,543$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7219818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No1c1,514$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6313422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No3c1,498$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.172560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No9c1,305$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11114421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…9378backed No2c1,196$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed No5c1,175$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.26520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed No4c1,104$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0419…9cd7backed No2c1,081$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12cc…af5abacked No2c1,025$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.48520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x726c…2558backed No12c1,014$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x641c…9dafbacked No2c1,008$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55f1…842dbacked Yes46c1,007$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.03837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b4…a38abacked No3c813.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No19c787.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6710730.8%33 W · 74 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc724…3a19backed No32c775$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked No2c736.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No3c664.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.234157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No16c628.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4929430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked No10c617.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No17c600$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1048435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-67.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x604a…d5f8backed No11c569.38$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x176a…a140backed No9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-27.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb244…ea50backed No2c522.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed No11c508.81$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.811428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6428…a346backed No5c505.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4739…138cbacked Yes69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…5c2abacked Yes36c488.89$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.89616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No11c468.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6532228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No34c450$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1532958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No23c431.56$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.331154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeae1…65ecbacked No15c391.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.29742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-41.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No5c378.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No17c368.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.813647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea1…fdbdbacked No11c363.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c9…ccbcbacked No5c340.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c7b…d463backed No7c333.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.941127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+98.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85e0…e601backed No24c327.65$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed Yes75c300$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked No10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1359…0c0dbacked No7c271.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+401.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83ff…6c62backed No6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77e6…0ae1backed No7c244.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked No14c240$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+23.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcccf…3382backed No8c225.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84e…e67ebacked No5c225$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca5e…8ca1backed No5c225$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa420…6fd0backed No5c225$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No12c224$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.288942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x155e…056cbacked No7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No13c212.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.971546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6bb…baafbacked No7c209.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9a…f6e9backed No65c206.27$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.251250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bf1…3018backed No6c204$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed No13c200.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325547.3%26 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf1b…8306backed No13c185.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.921040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34d0…264ebacked No13c169.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.52646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c160$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.97041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd90f…b6dabacked No25c153.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.63450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+86%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No24c151.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.381127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed No13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No24c149.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.996448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No64c139.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.993633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-38.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c35…2babbacked No7c133.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked No11c127.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.841163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+39.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No31c125$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7512533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7db8…8353backed Yes37c124.2$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+169.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No27c122.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.93231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No24c121.21$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.613638.9%14 W · 22 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0457…9828backed No31c119.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.61464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48bb…2dc2backed No17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf968…3019backed No17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eaf…aec9backed No10c114.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…1a8ebacked No11c112.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No13c110.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.974351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c99…abafbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+118.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe308…309cbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104427.3%12 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.