Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Kevin Wilson be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1199f9d472be2291f708580043017d1a91539b9e4d2eb8dbcda5ee7de6a90890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,851 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 57c | 1,229$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.02 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 1c | 999.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 78c | 933$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 4c | 740.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 67c | 715.06$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.5 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 22c | 707.37$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed Yes | 78c | 685$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 22c | 658$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 22c | 631$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 19c | 552$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.12 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 15c | 538.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +572.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 459.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.73 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 22c | 302$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 36c | 285.29$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.59 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 254.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.87 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 18c | 220.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 19c | 200$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.75 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…2625backed Yes | 51c | 198.21$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 161.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 49c | 148.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 36c | 142.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 21c | 131.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 58c | 125$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…9920backed No | 17c | 119$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51af…ecfebacked No | 15c | 116$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 9c | 115.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…6115backed No | 17c | 114$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…1742backed No | 20c | 113$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +412.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 109.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…814dbacked No | 12c | 104.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…f22fbacked No | 17c | 104$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81dc…fb27backed No | 15c | 103$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +583.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…f31abacked No | 15c | 103$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +569%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…bfc8backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +501.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 37cpaid | +225.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…065bbacked No | 14c | 94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b16…40c5backed No | 15c | 89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +560.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 79c | 87.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 73c | 76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 78c | 73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 14c | 72.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 17c | 62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 59.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc106…2a44backed No | 22c | 53.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 42c | 52.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked No | 35c | 52.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 24c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…9a86backed No | 36c | 32.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…9f91backed No | 37c | 29.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 67c | 18.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kevin Wilson be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?this page
- Will Ron Eller be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.