Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ron Eller be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x880bf760561cdf3118e20dc35d9f7669222585d99e9b5b1d3ef510c31abadef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,893 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0918…79c4backed Yes | 11c | 6,180$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,504.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +815.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 53c | 1,414$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.21 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 1,294$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.98 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…8ecebacked Yes | 11c | 841.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +772.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…399abacked Yes | 31c | 786.58$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 43c | 627.37$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.91 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 525.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 9c | 345.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 67c | 333$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 71c | 282.4$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 28c | 243.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.84 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 208.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.66 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 24c | 204.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.5 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 20c | 187.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 125.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…2625backed No | 9c | 112.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 47c | 73.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 60c | 67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 55.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 45.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…9f91backed Yes | 40c | 29.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 59c | 23.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ron Eller be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?this page
- Will Kevin Wilson be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.