TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada before March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,753

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,341 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc212…a125backed Yes70c11,466$8,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,412.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No7c3,415$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.5120614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No4c3,100$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.78921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadf1…1e9bbacked No31c3,055$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.27520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes74c2,490$1,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.9427828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked No27c2,141$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.5910928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No34c2,073$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3366…e5bebacked No33c2,071$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed Yes67c1,981$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ba…9e00backed Yes68c1,478$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.43771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed No5c1,460$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83d6…0489backed No14c1,345$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.861631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfe…d914backed No15c1,279$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No18c1,186$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.6411435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No32c1,087$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.385425.9%14 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No31c1,058$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.761258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4e…e65abacked No17c999.98$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No17c999.78$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.3113525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cec…1ef6backed No21c961.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No22c922.62$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.435429.6%16 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd49…0d55backed No20c899.98$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.291711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes68c800$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0111…0463backed No26c778.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x108c…7d81backed No7c741.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40bb…72bebacked No30c674.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0962…55d7backed Yes71c661.4$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes29c600.84$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.3619027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d07…4779backed Yes64c536.88$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf478…aaa2backed No5c536.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No9c510.47$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9515237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb018…8891backed Yes78c499.24$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.641154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes79c496.53$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.481,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x741b…b1d3backed No49c495.89$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.6920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50af…0693backed No20c459$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes73c457.09$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.252245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes69c443.56$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.474045%18 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes41c420$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.55633.9%19 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed No27c415.17$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.051717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-45.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe38d…6c36backed No18c392.78$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No9c386.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.724030%12 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb44…c56ebacked No24c359.9$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No29c354.73$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1857636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked No25c342.51$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.61353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes71c339.57$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.883342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2808…16babacked Yes77c327.23$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.02425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-67.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No13c315.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.823839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff3…b24dbacked No14c314.68$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5a…408cbacked No27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9b85backed No12c299.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes76c298.39$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.593342.4%14 W · 19 L-8.2wins-0.25per pick67cpaid-37%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked No7c288.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.18119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No6c286$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.09786.4%5 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-77.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes77c278.42$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.545149%25 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+168.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No13c276.24$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.525817.2%10 W · 48 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Yes62c275.41$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.661450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Yes68c272.89$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.324332.6%14 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce9…764cbacked Yes74c270.72$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.39425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked No31c270$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No28c257.91$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes66c252.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9148224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No19c237.87$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1520051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb948…12e5backed No57c221.39$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5838…3636backed Yes79c212.25$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.54753.2%25 W · 22 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed No9c211.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.641729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes77c198.72$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed No29c182$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes51c179.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.974334.9%15 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked No32c157$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fec…4cafbacked Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+96.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.56328.6%18 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bd5…8737backed No31c145.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes63c140.65$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes76c139.89$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.57837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes80c125.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.58875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes77c125.56$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.495532.7%18 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb583…35d9backed No38c121.14$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…aee5backed Yes69c119.74$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.123759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7a2…910abacked Yes77c119.44$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.94683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+96.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes70c115.07$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.973447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8178…32d8backed Yes74c115$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.13100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked No25c110.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbdc9…7304backed No38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9de…0dc5backed Yes69c101.93$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.93850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd477…6c04backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4131…7a55backed No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d3…4356backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ef0…0213backed No34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.81346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324440.9%18 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4cd…8c07backed Yes68c98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…8e16backed No22c90.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes73c89.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes63c81.08$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb208…d68dbacked No37c81.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No32c79.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2410520%21 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4145…fc24backed Yes67c76.12$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.122441.7%10 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9f19…72d9backed No28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x47dc…eec9backed Yes71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.42742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.