NFL · resolved market
Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "My Way"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48df84e093bf9c909ac308ace75eb3aa1034724a2c3f1b2e54b5a377ddf40e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe03…431bbacked Yes | 53c | 9,242$4,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,871.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed Yes | 37c | 6,174$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,284.61 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 16c | 4,562$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 46c | 4,072$1,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.3 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 76c | 3,892$2,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…3842backed Yes | 18c | 3,571$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…ec66backed Yes | 67c | 2,979$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x940d…3bb7backed No | 7c | 2,580$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +491%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed Yes | 25c | 1,981$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 70c | 1,411$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb28…bd69backed Yes | 20c | 995$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 78c | 567$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 45c | 380$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1386…c420backed No | 29c | 343.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…55a8backed No | 31c | 320.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +194.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb53b…96bebacked Yes | 69c | 290.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…cf41backed No | 57c | 263.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…ff04backed Yes | 52c | 170$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…b270backed No | 52c | 161.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…c769backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c61…15c0backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 12c | 114$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 62c | 81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…24e4backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 57c | 70.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…bc74backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0165backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…8c9ebacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb404…0a05backed No | 34c | 42.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0425…8aa3backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d25fbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "My Way"?this page
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "DJ Got Us Fallin’ In Love"?No won
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "OMG"?No won
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"?No won
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be something else?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.