NFL · resolved market
Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x723cb07a5d1f079f56499f2e2e8a278c4d3607e952d040047fef41e7f98cc5ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e03…14ffbacked Yes | 7c | 2,771$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…9130backed Yes | 11c | 2,277$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 7c | 1,591$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.78 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…3842backed Yes | 8c | 1,450$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf481…07e5backed Yes | 11c | 893.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 750$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…d03cbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…b6fdbacked Yes | 10c | 623.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0429…df8fbacked Yes | 10c | 519.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3876…9a2abacked Yes | 8c | 472.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…ff04backed Yes | 6c | 433.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…bc74backed Yes | 11c | 376.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…6404backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…c2e8backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 5c | 225$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…adeabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503e…c676backed Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…63dcbacked Yes | 12c | 171.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc4…f546backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…09ebbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…ea8abacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…7e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…5ea3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…0021backed Yes | 10c | 101.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7222…0dcabacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…71f5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"?this page
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "DJ Got Us Fallin’ In Love"?No won
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "My Way"?No won
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "OMG"?No won
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be something else?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.