NFL · resolved market
Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "OMG"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf850f3a3b5f2ae29b0184cbbb3a848fa7c4a0ff6c651ede891da86813e683581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e03…14ffbacked Yes | 12c | 2,841$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e3…0d4cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,086$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…0d32backed Yes | 17c | 879.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…d815backed Yes | 17c | 874.37$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…8fccbacked Yes | 13c | 766.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf481…07e5backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…7905backed Yes | 15c | 650.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e3…d066backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 481.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 7c | 457.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…d03cbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3876…9a2abacked Yes | 12c | 445.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6990…075bbacked Yes | 13c | 400.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cba…db51backed Yes | 13c | 388.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb28…bd69backed Yes | 9c | 372$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28fd…a7efbacked Yes | 15c | 336.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc30…0abdbacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb411…c36ebacked Yes | 9c | 244.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7c…cba7backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…8c9ebacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0530…d8febacked Yes | 12c | 117.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…e5cfbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…b6fdbacked Yes | 13c | 110.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abb…b887backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "OMG"?this page
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "DJ Got Us Fallin’ In Love"?No won
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "My Way"?No won
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"?No won
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be something else?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.