NFL · resolved market
Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be something else?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc796de103c9db9854fd262d1cade3eed7378163726123fd2e923b5906e22441a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07b8…3842backed No | 21c | 3,438$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 20c | 3,100$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed No | 27c | 2,186$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…96e6backed Yes | 27c | 1,003$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +272.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 52c | 900$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcb…0a5fbacked Yes | 55c | 641.11$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf481…07e5backed Yes | 39c | 360.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d63…c099backed Yes | 20c | 347.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +304.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…ff04backed No | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 56c | 140.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…24e4backed Yes | 17c | 117.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…e5cfbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…49efbacked Yes | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9546…0739backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…412fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be something else?this page
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "DJ Got Us Fallin’ In Love"?No won
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "My Way"?No won
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "OMG"?No won
- Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "Yeah!"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.