Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jamaal Bowman win the NY-16 Democratic House Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x678e1994648c6b0331f3f5aeaa31c3abf2e1a42354904aeaf8398a7369f39617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 29c | 10,891$3,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,114.98 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 31c | 2,900$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.6 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 27c | 2,750$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.56 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 1,889$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.4 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,547$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 62c | 1,350$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.41 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed No | 77c | 987.74$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61e…86f3backed Yes | 5c | 733.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 74c | 700$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 31c | 634.78$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d0…22e3backed Yes | 8c | 446.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 34c | 444$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 4c | 411.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1db…2633backed Yes | 6c | 341.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes | 7c | 298.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…f5c0backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jamaal Bowman win the NY-16 Democratic House Primary?this page
- Will George Latimer win the NY-16 Democratic House Primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.