TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Hawk Tuah token by Thanksgiving?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$188,522
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$185,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,522 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47bc…abd2backed No4c15,804$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No1c9,271$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.11456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+272.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d1…700fbacked No74c7,976$5,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,940.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf20c…42f0backed Yes41c7,655$3,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,552.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x881b…28acbacked Yes42c7,095$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,094.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79d4…6d24backed No74c6,833$5,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,072.672958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f5…2e8dbacked Yes10c6,550$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,894.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+186.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5283…654ebacked Yes40c5,211$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1401100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked No40c5,200$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.971631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df8…5907backed No2c5,198$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac3…cd44backed Yes22c4,625$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,606.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+353.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes46c4,458$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.911163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+45.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed Yes65c4,073$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.11154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick28cpaid+74.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4a6…740fbacked No80c3,932$3,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,129.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes5c3,913$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,708.424450%22 W · 22 L+6.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+95.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No1c3,574$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.15825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1156…0febbacked Yes13c3,440$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,000.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+291%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No18c2,750$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.19757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x48e5…a482backed Yes21c2,677$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+216.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No19c2,355$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes24c2,270$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.8633329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe793…0781backed Yes24c2,049$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+309.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked No71c1,972$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e3…ad70backed Yes29c1,737$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2583…0626backed No36c1,662$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+160.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No16c1,567$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.46848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes28c1,523$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x36c6…dba8backed Yes19c1,455$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+168.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf7a…7a7cbacked Yes45c1,060$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x556d…23bdbacked Yes75c1,056$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+78%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17b0…4041backed Yes39c1,000$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes55c941.18$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No10c880.05$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…5848backed No1c799.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a6…e2bcbacked Yes24c793.62$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+317.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74c3…c1a8backed No8c759.25$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1cf…9191backed Yes68c739.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.23250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No63c733.29$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.55366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes64c731.73$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.04633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes8c620$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.028052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4931…e11cbacked Yes38c554.78$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+98.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes20c517.96$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.3813424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x617d…fd9fbacked Yes24c504.32$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+109.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e54…a5b0backed Yes40c499.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.95742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8987…a39bbacked No61c463.78$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5b…b95ebacked Yes37c436.01$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a7…863abacked Yes36c411.94$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe332…ef6abacked Yes8c406.88$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01f7…02dfbacked No10c400.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick10cpaid+619.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40de…ca49backed Yes45c388.54$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1b…d2b1backed No79c387.11$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb83c…7b43backed Yes53c371.98$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d2…90abbacked No54c371.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7728…f932backed Yes19c369.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.593100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+256.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb715…a663backed No63c338.58$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc31d…98d7backed No77c309.14$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9709…af53backed No59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20f7…635ebacked No71c298.41$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.5630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ecf…c70bbacked No36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9805…8a3cbacked Yes33c263.15$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd295…a832backed Yes27c262.95$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+87.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed No75c262.1$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x341c…8eaebacked No74c257.22$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e6…c94cbacked Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fed…3068backed Yes12c250$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed Yes29c243.46$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.461833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes14c234.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.32231.8%7 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick16cpaid+295.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x715b…3ee1backed No45c222.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd653…ba9abacked No43c203$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11b5…f37bbacked No73c200.74$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1283174.2%23 W · 8 L+8.0wins+0.26per pick48cpaid+44.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb702…e291backed Yes13c200$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+195.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74c8…0b36backed Yes11c200$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+74.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f3d…fea8backed No50c200$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked No73c199.91$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad01…53e4backed Yes76c187.54$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2a4…7bf2backed Yes24c185.92$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+311.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No52c171.6$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.793638.9%14 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8895…7673backed No65c170$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee82…f011backed Yes66c167.9$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.92646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6374…847cbacked Yes27c167.04$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+86%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f61…8212backed Yes56c165.45$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2a…7be2backed No52c161.23$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5053…2966backed Yes36c141.37$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+178.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9421…c375backed No72c139.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x389b…7d39backed Yes14c139.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+595.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes15c138.11$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.44153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7982…9f04backed Yes17c137.68$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.68633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc9…3b7abacked Yes50c133.5$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0760…c72ebacked Yes15c133.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4092…1920backed Yes19c128.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+71.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f98…78e4backed No80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb10b…5102backed Yes27c120$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x174a…f2cebacked No56c117.24$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc81a…584fbacked No74c117.03$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0776…abb4backed Yes15c117$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d7…8adcbacked Yes22c116.97$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+349.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ad…968fbacked No66c116.61$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1521…5ac8backed Yes26c114.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+282.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44a2…5374backed Yes14c107.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.