World Politics · resolved market
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: GL-PvdA vs CDA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83fa0ff0655aa716cee2d86ad61f7d6efdb713038fd3f31e0c5da152bb8cfa27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GL-PvdAof GL-PvdA, CDA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04bb…6566backed CDA | 50c | 20,219$10,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,109.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb12…5134backed GL-PvdA | 50c | 20,219$10,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,109.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed CDA | 37c | 2,024$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.45 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed CDA | 53c | 1,410$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.99 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed GL-PvdA | 76c | 1,017$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.53 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed GL-PvdA | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3154…e615backed CDA | 51c | 980.83$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed CDA | 19c | 682.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked CDA | 15c | 456.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked CDA | 26c | 326.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed CDA | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed CDA | 49c | 231.38$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed GL-PvdA | 53c | 216$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed CDA | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked GL-PvdA | 39c | 180.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed CDA | 15c | 169.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddc…066bbacked CDA | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…4da4backed CDA | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…fea5backed CDA | 26c | 149.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed CDA | 7c | 137.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed CDA | 30c | 125.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked CDA | 20c | 115.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked CDA | 16c | 101.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…46f2backed CDA | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed CDA | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…e997backed GL-PvdA | 43c | 58.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed GL-PvdA | 49c | 58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2907…c1eebacked GL-PvdA | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…f73dbacked CDA | 65c | 49.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x105a…f301backed CDA | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…ded5backed GL-PvdA | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked GL-PvdA | 45c | 33.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed GL-PvdA | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed CDA | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…2a54backed CDA | 54c | 29.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x364e…f7fabacked CDA | 42c | 26.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddb…ac6dbacked CDA | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.