NFL · resolved market
Will Drake Maye start Week 1 for the Patriots?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8e7d17401d4f7e5b1c9abdac39aa3a7d97948aaf95ba3921b1118cef90a61de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Yes | 34c | 5,682$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 3,421$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.42 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…1444backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed No | 71c | 1,804$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.45 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 1,735$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 4c | 1,680$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 13c | 1,620$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 35c | 1,580$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.67 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed No | 68c | 1,330$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 65c | 911.5$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.61 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Yes | 8c | 900.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…3306backed Yes | 2c | 808.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 8c | 539$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 10c | 500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…2a72backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…a394backed Yes | 9c | 454.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Yes | 25c | 284.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…ce7abacked Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…a7afbacked Yes | 8c | 240.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a50…4d3cbacked Yes | 13c | 238.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45c…2a96backed Yes | 20c | 204.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…359ebacked Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 35c | 186$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +122%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…43b7backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Yes | 27c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 18c | 128.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…70d9backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351f…6815backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff4…64d7backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…d88cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +155%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed No | 64c | 65.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 54.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…dd01backed No | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…256dbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…c676backed Yes | 25c | 40.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…dcebbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.