China Taiwan · resolved market
Mexico tariffs on China in effect before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29bff78b0a3e16866873214308480288271fe784b42a626bd9d3d133edd400f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b1e…8921backed No | 37c | 25,410$9,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,008.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…cca0backed Yes | 63c | 25,410$16,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,008.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 811.11$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.74 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 30c | 402.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e9…0801backed Yes | 78c | 250$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 62c | 240.07$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 220.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.47 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 7c | 202$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…3111backed No | 51c | 196.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 54c | 152.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 131.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…56a2backed No | 38c | 101.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…0552backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…c082backed No | 29c | 90.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…275bbacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 49c | 63.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…bfaebacked No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 51c | 49.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 38c | 49.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked No | 41c | 45.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 48c | 39.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…0d31backed Yes | 70c | 36.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 36.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3660…8c06backed No | 51c | 29.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 42c | 26.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…733dbacked Yes | 59c | 25.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 46c | 21.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.