Movies · resolved market
Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-12m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cb8b01a24c0245d1479d0a81ad2919b03c7d83b7f912b5653435e7d8580d08d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 30c | 9,681$2,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,952.44 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 15c | 8,379$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.22 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 13c | 5,434$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.72 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…939cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,952$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 4,879$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.98 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes | 1c | 3,681$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 13c | 3,418$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.38 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 38c | 2,947$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.84 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 20c | 2,916$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.07 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,597$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,355$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 21c | 2,001$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.31 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,820$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.12 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 1,800$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 34c | 1,752$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,493$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 2c | 1,365$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 37c | 1,319$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.44 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 19c | 1,120$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.05 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 6c | 1,050$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 3c | 700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 6c | 644.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 36c | 577.81$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.04 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 27c | 550.78$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.08 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 36c | 532.83$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.79 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 72c | 515.26$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.02 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d72…3723backed Yes | 3c | 491.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 20c | 483$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 62c | 436.14$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.18 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 43c | 353.1$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.34 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 53c | 296.5$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 285.82$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 31c | 218.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 69c | 210$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 32c | 204$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes | 30c | 186.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +338.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 17c | 160$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…177ebacked Yes | 7c | 151.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +535.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 140.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 116.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6661…277dbacked Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0015…1daebacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 26c | 74.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…025bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…ac9bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0309…bb72backed Yes | 73c | 23.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-12m?this page
- Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $6-9m?Yes won
- Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $6m?No won
- Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $12m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.