Movies · resolved market
Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $6-9m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd74558915bae887e2c4f15f25a43631a5563c6ca2cb0fa8f6f04d22b3284aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 59c | 2,677$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.91 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 53c | 2,448$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.69 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 72c | 2,370$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.72 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed No | 22c | 1,900$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.76 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 65c | 1,813$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.44 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,500$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed No | 25c | 1,254$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.12 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 75c | 1,202$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.99 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 2c | 1,048$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 13c | 736.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 59c | 652.33$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.68 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 43c | 652$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 68c | 584.4$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 75c | 523.85$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 42c | 371.56$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.28 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 353.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 50c | 330.01$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.02 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 64c | 306$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed No | 27c | 265$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 64c | 246.24$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 56c | 242.01$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes | 66c | 185.26$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 59c | 179.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 165.84$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 65c | 152.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 31c | 130.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 78c | 115.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 55c | 104.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 52c | 101.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 49c | 93.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 41c | 88.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 57c | 85.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 54c | 84.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 51c | 69.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 60c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 22c | 57.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 50.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 27c | 49.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 70c | 29.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…078bbacked No | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf893…666ebacked Yes | 64c | 24.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8424…2700backed Yes | 64c | 22.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…9892backed No | 63c | 19.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $6-9m?this page
- Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-12m?No won
- Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $6m?No won
- Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $12m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.