Movies · resolved market
Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $6m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd569c253e2bdc47e1fc8ecb9311e9ff18aa8fe0cdb550800443b0ed7a0f04a93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcee5…73c6backed Yes | 1c | 39,300$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,863$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,148$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d72…3723backed Yes | 1c | 3,203$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 9c | 3,136$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.4 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,927$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 14c | 2,213$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.69 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 78c | 2,089$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.84 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 6c | 2,044$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.35 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 22c | 2,010$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,538$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,500$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 7c | 1,229$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,148$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 12c | 907.69$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 68c | 679$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.28 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…8efabacked Yes | 2c | 658.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 18c | 280$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 75c | 265$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 222.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 78c | 210.16$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes | 11c | 192.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +338.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 77c | 190$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 16c | 128.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 25c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $6m?this page
- Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $6-9m?Yes won
- Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-12m?No won
- Will "Heart Eyes" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $12m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.