TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,010,289
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,938,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,010,289 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2a3…c3a6backed No11c156,955$17,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,615.61421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed No6c61,459$3,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,857.691526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed No5c34,221$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,823.882030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No11c23,448$2,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,662.74650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x991b…f19abacked No8c16,837$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.97425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes74c15,188$11,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,941.23225%8 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No6c13,187$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.882825%7 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes68c13,085$8,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,170.685738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed No6c11,150$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed No19c10,145$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.06110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No7c9,017$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.27611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No7c9,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf492…3061backed No10c8,189$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.181513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-12.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb425…366bbacked Yes75c7,999$5,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes58c7,774$4,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,282.061526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No10c7,736$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.1911522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a69…30bfbacked No8c6,365$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No9c6,227$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.2712440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No15c6,088$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.528331.3%26 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed No7c5,496$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.451127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes69c5,441$3,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,693.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14a1…1149backed No43c5,286$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.61330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23e0…66b6backed Yes58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1002100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Yes71c4,900$3,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ff4…b91fbacked Yes76c4,634$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes59c4,407$2,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,788.767639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No18c4,094$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.241464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.27per pick38cpaid+70.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes77c4,022$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.3521033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No3c4,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c3,812$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.73119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick2cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No13c3,800$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.9134129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed No6c3,458$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No14c3,418$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.281216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd2…9b1abacked Yes77c3,100$2,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-29.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes77c3,000$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09da…6dffbacked No11c2,980$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.26520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3327…11debacked No9c2,929$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.431118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe88e…a7d4backed Yes70c2,558$1,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No20c2,383$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.868114.8%12 W · 69 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed No6c2,338$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.26130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes70c2,313$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.8415445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes62c2,300$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8784037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes60c2,263$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.335545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58e2…dfeabacked Yes72c2,093$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes61c2,030$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.915251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdff0…2918backed Yes77c2,021$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No27c2,020$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.421833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x018d…0fe6backed No8c1,931$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed Yes72c1,673$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.782842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3106…d672backed No19c1,609$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.252842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x331f…28e3backed No34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0169…0096backed Yes70c1,482$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbae5…45e3backed Yes79c1,474$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.452450%12 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes71c1,471$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.492166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes76c1,467$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.23475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+65.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5683…b8bfbacked Yes75c1,330$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed Yes77c1,299$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.7850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa465…193abacked Yes78c1,296$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e88…44a2backed Yes80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e4…93aabacked Yes72c1,245$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No18c1,219$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.454240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No29c1,210$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.8216833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No16c1,197$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.344245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed No5c1,126$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes61c1,101$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.8319643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f20…ace1backed No23c1,100$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes70c1,050$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.53066.7%20 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes78c1,037$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Yes75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ede…c417backed No6c999.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4760%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd58…5980backed Yes69c946.29$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed No7c910.91$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69b5…4897backed No6c824.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes73c821.3$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.491637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1537…c480backed No25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes60c800$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes80c800$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes75c776.24$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.822646.2%12 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes78c773.36$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.112147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes77c766.7$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d2…2826backed No6c750$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1b…2527backed Yes77c719.37$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No30c704.97$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.575151%26 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3007…763abacked Yes74c675.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.68560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6358…cc23backed Yes76c639$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.36450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc5…df10backed Yes76c636.62$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf38…0912backed Yes80c628.47$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab25…0806backed Yes80c624.5$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4f…c055backed Yes78c622.82$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.49450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No38c599.98$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.712171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes75c578$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9321161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7af6…83cabacked No5c576$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No24c575.73$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.544652.2%24 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0f…ec43backed Yes74c559.74$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.74366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c5…0299backed Yes78c545$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.16650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes70c537.59$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.6516632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed Yes60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked No23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.