Movies · resolved market
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $7m and $10m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55c0e5927de8c1b8804d1fb8b9bff12aa2c59cbb7c2adfcbdee588a45ea4dd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81a0…6feebacked Yes | 0c | 12,365$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 29c | 7,965$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.8 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 15c | 7,748$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.18 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 6,565$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.69 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 24c | 6,140$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.39 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,466$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 35c | 3,833$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.19 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 43c | 3,547$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.69 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…5f8fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,126$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 32c | 2,459$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.42 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,034$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 30c | 2,000$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 41c | 1,918$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.67 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 38c | 1,899$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.17 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 42c | 1,809$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.84 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 41c | 1,472$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.42 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 53c | 1,443$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.67 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 33c | 1,300$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.8 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 43c | 953.76$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 43c | 930.44$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.6 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 45c | 800.05$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.34 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 38c | 748$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.36 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 13c | 618.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 52c | 578.53$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 45c | 565$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.75 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 2c | 552.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 43c | 547$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.86 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 527.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 6c | 437.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…e885backed Yes | 5c | 434.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 70c | 330$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 24c | 308.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 36c | 265.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 49c | 226$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 28c | 187.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 39c | 139.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 138.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 68c | 138$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 128.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 124.81$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 20c | 123.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 47c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed No | 47c | 106.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes | 55c | 91.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…4958backed No | 53c | 70.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf83…adebbacked No | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 51c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f77…574fbacked No | 51c | 54.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…ffc8backed Yes | 43c | 53.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…4f3abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17df…6bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 48.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 59c | 45.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes | 43c | 38.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…3e3ebacked Yes | 45c | 36.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…22c0backed Yes | 51c | 34.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…0c2cbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…ba14backed Yes | 40c | 29.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3356…118ebacked No | 62c | 29.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd551…80c2backed No | 62c | 25.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7e09backed No | 62c | 24.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0150…da16backed No | 62c | 24.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…d988backed Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $7m and $10m?this page
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more?No won
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $10m and $13m?Yes won
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $7m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.