Movies · resolved market
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $10m and $13m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x928a41c3f96ce756e4565a7fccbdffa38f398485b37fca59fac064998005556a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 10c | 11,925$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.4 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 10c | 10,534$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,499.1 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 55c | 10,192$5,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,601.97 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed No | 48c | 5,127$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.59 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 49c | 4,905$2,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,509.48 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 26c | 4,244$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,158.65 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 11c | 3,934$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.45 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 79c | 3,916$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 38c | 3,814$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.02 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 12c | 2,971$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,627.67 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 66c | 2,768$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 2c | 2,378$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 27c | 2,139$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.52 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 9c | 1,605$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 69c | 1,500$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.64 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 1,476$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.81 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 50c | 1,469$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.51 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 14c | 1,435$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.84 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 9c | 1,318$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.98 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,089$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.4 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8008…190ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,042$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 50c | 1,008$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.68 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 20c | 860.5$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 52c | 811.97$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.29 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 30c | 811.45$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.23 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 76c | 802.43$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.85 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 41c | 800$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 45c | 800$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.03 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 17c | 672.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.93 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 12c | 672$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.15 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 31c | 610.47$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.1 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…51babacked Yes | 24c | 439.46$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 13c | 400$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…7242backed Yes | 13c | 335.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes | 18c | 277.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed No | 4c | 270$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 11c | 256.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 43c | 253.43$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.46 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…4068backed Yes | 9c | 234.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 15c | 200$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.5 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 77c | 188.03$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 49c | 174.25$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381f…bda5backed Yes | 26c | 132.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…e885backed Yes | 77c | 129.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03fd…2e7cbacked Yes | 15c | 111.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…4f3abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 17c | 80.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…aaf2backed Yes | 26c | 79.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 48c | 77.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 40c | 76.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ac…3acfbacked Yes | 48c | 75.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Yes | 68c | 70.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 71c | 68.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…e013backed No | 60c | 65.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 22c | 57.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…7bd1backed Yes | 48c | 53.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f8…d33abacked Yes | 62c | 49.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…c650backed No | 41c | 47.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 64c | 43.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…3ee7backed Yes | 46c | 32.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…fb5bbacked Yes | 65c | 22.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $10m and $13m?this page
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more?No won
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $7m and $10m?No won
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $7m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.