Movies · resolved market
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $7m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88d9809dd49ac09811dcfd7bb17a19433acb51b19fd430192bb8ad2a13f9efe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 16c | 20,146$3,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,132.44 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 80c | 8,412$6,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.49 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 48c | 7,809$3,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,768.99 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f4…2460backed Yes | 1c | 7,279$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 49c | 6,522$3,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,303.62 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 6,514$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.68 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes | 51c | 6,015$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 49c | 4,000$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 66c | 3,198$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…ca6abacked Yes | 8c | 2,989$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,687$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 57c | 2,580$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.33 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 49c | 2,495$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.92 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 35c | 2,083$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.73 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked Yes | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 21c | 1,894$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.05 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…e885backed Yes | 1c | 1,605$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…d5c3backed Yes | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 32c | 1,475$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.07 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 39c | 1,279$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.62 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 58c | 1,263$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.01 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 44c | 999.76$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.22 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 23c | 981.51$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.79 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed No | 47c | 900$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa880…d095backed No | 62c | 800.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 63c | 682.68$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.25 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x621f…9c10backed Yes | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 46c | 537.09$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.63 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 62c | 527.31$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked No | 52c | 460$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.6 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 49c | 394.69$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.24 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 42c | 392.96$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.04 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed No | 55c | 381.65$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked No | 62c | 336.47$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.87 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 55c | 253.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 40c | 238$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…51babacked Yes | 36c | 218$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 208.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed No | 76c | 169.51$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…025bbacked No | 50c | 155.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 58c | 151$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 59c | 108.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…aaf2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 39c | 98.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 48c | 97.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…551fbacked No | 49c | 94.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 54c | 77.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 76.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…99e5backed No | 77c | 71.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…77e9backed No | 42c | 68.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…93d5backed Yes | 64c | 62.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e84…de96backed No | 47c | 61.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed Yes | 38c | 59.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…ec24backed Yes | 47c | 57.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked No | 56c | 53.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…067cbacked No | 42c | 50.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…6330backed No | 44c | 50.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…4f3abacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfd…a368backed Yes | 53c | 46.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…0effbacked Yes | 63c | 44.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aae…93f5backed Yes | 52c | 44.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…ca1cbacked Yes | 55c | 43.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f5…92bcbacked Yes | 61c | 41.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 51c | 41.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…c697backed Yes | 60c | 40.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…a403backed Yes | 62c | 40.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…5b98backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda5c…7eebbacked Yes | 63c | 38.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…3ee7backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2933…534cbacked No | 50c | 35.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d3…603bbacked No | 45c | 34.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…964cbacked No | 54c | 33.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7370…3cbdbacked Yes | 61c | 32.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…6c87backed No | 57c | 32.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…dc71backed No | 66c | 31.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae3…0ab6backed No | 44c | 29.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…f60dbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed93…bb7bbacked Yes | 49c | 28.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…983fbacked Yes | 64c | 27.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9050…2235backed Yes | 49c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…405cbacked No | 48c | 26.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…56f2backed Yes | 53c | 25.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…2e19backed No | 57c | 25.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…ba14backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…db07backed No | 56c | 24.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad6…c251backed No | 50c | 24.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…2f76backed Yes | 53c | 21.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…b25fbacked No | 49c | 21.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…6b4cbacked Yes | 53c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes | 51c | 21.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $7m?this page
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more?No won
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $10m and $13m?Yes won
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $7m and $10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.