Movies · resolved market
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x124b9bfca87e921a7d5c2b0f6de2805e3c60491a3832b07cce15ec7d039e7e19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $275,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 4c | 32,928$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.51 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 4c | 25,437$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.61 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 24,619$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.68 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 2c | 22,649$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.07 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 11c | 18,183$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.43 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 6c | 15,292$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.25 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 8c | 13,147$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 2c | 8,890$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.45 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 5c | 7,851$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.03 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 7c | 7,436$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.32 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 1c | 6,760$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 5c | 4,057$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.99 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 2c | 3,394$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8008…190ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,868$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 1c | 2,366$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,769$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,747$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03fd…2e7cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,516$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…e885backed Yes | 8c | 1,451$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 4c | 1,208$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…25d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,026$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,002$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 7c | 950$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed Yes | 3c | 855.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 6c | 811.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Yes | 5c | 773.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 3c | 763.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 4c | 641.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 2c | 627.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 623.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 14c | 555.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 2c | 553.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…aaf2backed Yes | 8c | 461.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 5c | 372.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…7c4fbacked Yes | 4c | 360$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 8c | 266.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…a030backed Yes | 7c | 200.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…5f8fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…c538backed Yes | 6c | 189.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7918…8c2abacked Yes | 13c | 156.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 10c | 143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 9c | 135.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 16c | 125.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes | 16c | 122.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ec…0dbabacked Yes | 14c | 116.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…349fbacked Yes | 13c | 99.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…e322backed Yes | 14c | 95.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more?this page
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $10m and $13m?Yes won
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $7m and $10m?No won
- Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $7m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.