Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Fed end QT before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22ef905d2c1f47b416c783a43cf06eea3cd73732ca0ed4d021aab8423924bdb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,253,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,188,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,253,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd8c…18c6backed No | 0c | 1,131,184$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…0136backed No | 0c | 493,838$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2286…a32fbacked No | 0c | 369,661$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1a…a81cbacked No | 0c | 325,801$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…633dbacked No | 0c | 216,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e4…3032backed No | 0c | 210,217$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8344…52b7backed No | 0c | 160,531$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb6…dfdfbacked No | 0c | 146,897$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…7e48backed No | 45c | 122,515$55,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,131.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…2b88backed Yes | 55c | 122,515$67,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,131.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…f338backed No | 0c | 117,610$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801a…97bebacked No | 0c | 105,685$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0f…a61fbacked No | 0c | 100,040$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b0…9808backed No | 0c | 96,776$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6791…f7abbacked No | 0c | 70,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…eb16backed No | 0c | 68,267$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b1…fa34backed No | 0c | 68,240$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…a20bbacked No | 0c | 65,018$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…5bf6backed No | 0c | 64,335$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae6c…d124backed No | 0c | 58,750$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 57,189$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9c…89f0backed No | 0c | 55,954$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…e78ebacked No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf203…c9cfbacked No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…c203backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…1a32backed No | 0c | 50,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…a14cbacked No | 0c | 49,500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…419cbacked No | 0c | 49,500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf003…0884backed No | 0c | 49,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b5…714dbacked No | 0c | 42,965$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…2751backed No | 0c | 37,987$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…f19bbacked No | 0c | 37,037$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…ff0cbacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe9…d357backed No | 0c | 27,227$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f95…6a72backed No | 0c | 26,485$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa73c…97fcbacked No | 0c | 26,340$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb2…cf00backed No | 0c | 25,670$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9c…98ffbacked No | 0c | 25,430$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…6b49backed No | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…54b8backed No | 0c | 24,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e07…1582backed No | 0c | 20,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ff…30e8backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e2…f30abacked No | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…2dd4backed No | 0c | 19,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf43…e5b9backed No | 0c | 19,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f6…bcd8backed No | 0c | 19,484$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edd…1717backed No | 0c | 18,265$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…365fbacked No | 0c | 17,739$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…6b5dbacked No | 0c | 17,559$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…ad35backed No | 0c | 15,962$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 52c | 15,947$8,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,689.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 17c | 15,800$2,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,739.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669f…325fbacked No | 0c | 15,260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e22…d7e3backed No | 0c | 15,216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…e98ebacked No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 0c | 15,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…e781backed No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…8d6ebacked No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…ac8dbacked No | 0c | 12,995$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…c36ebacked No | 0c | 12,760$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 33c | 12,684$4,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,131.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 12,252$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91d…6375backed No | 0c | 12,205$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…f208backed No | 0c | 11,667$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…f702backed No | 0c | 10,670$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed No | 0c | 10,083$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44cc…62d7backed No | 0c | 10,065$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc3…995cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf890…51e6backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…b1c2backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f8…cc2bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b50…019fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd20c…6d06backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…f9f2backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…3e78backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bd…4decbacked No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…ae24backed No | 0c | 9,915$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…d179backed No | 0c | 8,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc055…30f8backed No | 0c | 8,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…0747backed No | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…82adbacked No | 0c | 6,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…0331backed No | 0c | 6,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…e9ebbacked No | 0c | 6,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2603…baa2backed No | 0c | 5,031$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x893a…36edbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f5…aa1bbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…4f8bbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…8bb3backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d11…dff1backed No | 1c | 3,714$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed No | 1c | 3,050$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 17c | 2,515$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.05 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 48c | 1,927$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.35 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…d56dbacked No | 12c | 857.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 805.79$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.08 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 56c | 660$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 584.6$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 513.75$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.68 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.