Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2de705343408346161b21ddf3f9218378dd5c9ba0400d46597910e443b414044
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 29c | 6,118$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.17 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 22c | 5,129$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.75 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed Yes | 68c | 5,000$3,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 39c | 3,933$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.28 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed No | 3c | 3,387$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.19 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 36c | 3,091$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 59c | 3,062$1,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.94 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 0c | 2,990$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 33c | 2,982$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.64 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 19c | 2,473$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.67 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 38c | 2,459$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 41c | 2,383$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.24 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed Yes | 70c | 2,249$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.88 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…5f93backed No | 3c | 2,115$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 23c | 2,100$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 22c | 1,936$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.38 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 68c | 1,905$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.7 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 66c | 1,646$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.16 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 38c | 1,572$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.36 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 23c | 1,462$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.78 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 77c | 1,433$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.85 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed No | 61c | 1,248$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.03 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 55c | 1,247$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.27 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 20c | 1,161$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.05 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 68c | 1,120$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.69 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,088$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.71 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…a808backed Yes | 80c | 1,046$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 54c | 1,034$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.04 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 45c | 924.96$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.41 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 41c | 807.68$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.89 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 49c | 800$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.2 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 78c | 785.69$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 749.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d1…27dfbacked Yes | 70c | 714.77$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 50c | 710.52$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.57 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 61c | 646.93$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.73 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 43c | 635.94$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.12 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 47c | 628.18$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.92 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 55c | 614$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 74c | 600$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.06 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 48c | 599.9$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.95 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 52c | 579$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.35 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…ad89backed No | 65c | 563$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 66c | 528.26$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.19 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5b…4ababacked No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 497.05$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.32 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 61c | 482$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.38 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 51c | 461.63$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.69 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 66c | 450.37$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 69cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 55c | 427.01$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 62c | 413.99$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.98 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 60c | 413.46$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.43 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked Yes | 54c | 407.91$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.91 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…e366backed Yes | 34c | 374.65$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.65 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 37c | 374.18$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.81 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 65c | 361.82$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.18 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 21c | 350$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa433…67ccbacked No | 20c | 341.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…7e88backed Yes | 44c | 332.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 72c | 300$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 42c | 297.56$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.56 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 37c | 294.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.15 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 63c | 281.97$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 281.7$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.35 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 66c | 272.82$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…0aa5backed Yes | 41c | 266.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 63c | 262$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.81 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 55c | 252.56$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 42c | 243.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.43 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 67c | 242.87$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.46 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 38c | 240.86$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.33 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c40…66a4backed Yes | 43c | 233.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…19b4backed Yes | 46c | 218.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 66c | 216.86$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 28c | 216.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…52d2backed No | 32c | 215.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 41c | 212.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.15 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…685bbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 37c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.45 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…c73cbacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 23c | 187.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed Yes | 42c | 185.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 54c | 184.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 61c | 183.7$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 69 | 71%49 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…4c1bbacked No | 60c | 165.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 163.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked No | 62c | 161.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 45c | 159.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed No | 61c | 153$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…b7cfbacked Yes | 60c | 150.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…b226backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed Yes | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 75c | 149.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 43c | 138.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 47c | 130.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…e145backed No | 35c | 128.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.