NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x616796b742c2e8b337177558a2683894178948c8ea76491c510691555f139385
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 18,532$8,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,673.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 53c | 16,668$8,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,904.6 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 52c | 4,389$2,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.63 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 1,483$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.17 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…15e4backed Under | 56c | 1,382$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 49c | 1,117$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.34 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…3047backed Over | 45c | 720.76$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Under | 51c | 545.16$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.13 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 45c | 488.89$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 410$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.85 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 45c | 404.82$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.54 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 47c | 372$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 189.01$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…04bcbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked Under | 56c | 87.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 181 | 55.2%100 W · 81 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Under | 57c | 65.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 54c | 57.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 50.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…d549backed Over | 45c | 23.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Hornets won
- Lakers vs. HornetsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.