NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0feec1df254e59995cf005e50a082ca22a3f613aedaf48fc8b1de2742ec0c1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 52c | 34,696$18,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,684.6 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 28,502$13,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,758.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff3c…09ebbacked Under | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 6,194$3,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.56 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 5,837$2,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,918.5 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 5,025$2,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 50c | 3,182$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.3 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Over | 53c | 1,950$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.31 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 1,850$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.5 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 1,045$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.59 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 954.75$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.83 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 729$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 49c | 681.02$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.81 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Over | 52c | 562.73$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.73 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 54c | 317.47$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.04 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Over | 52c | 314.17$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 49c | 306$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…287ebacked Under | 48c | 260.71$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 257$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.93 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 51c | 205.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 50c | 176.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 168.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed Under | 49c | 49.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Hornets won
- Lakers vs. HornetsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.