NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe73c3165dc4dd3a5ab14aed2d3e945f524a2e52ef113e055e2b1bfafbb4fc581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 51c | 9,657$4,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,922.49 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lakers | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lakers | 49c | 2,794$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.58 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Lakers | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Lakers | 52c | 1,065$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.38 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 48c | 894.81$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Hornets | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Lakers | 48c | 509.87$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.44 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Lakers | 50c | 500$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 46c | 490.43$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Hornets | 53c | 318.87$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 50c | 262$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Hornets | 52c | 145.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Lakers | 50c | 126.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Lakers | 34c | 110$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Lakers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…4ee7backed Hornets | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Lakers | 51c | 97.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hornets | 49c | 94.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hornets | 50c | 80.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d7…e943backed Hornets | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 49c | 78.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Lakers | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Lakers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Lakers | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Hornets | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7991…ef53backed Lakers | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…fe8bbacked Lakers | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Hornets won
- Lakers vs. HornetsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.