NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x268210a36993951c61133e38bb7cc05155aea508707b01f3959afc285e7702b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 51c | 39,563$20,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,186.13 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 49c | 14,739$7,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,564.49 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 13,054$6,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,715.3 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Over | 49c | 3,456$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.56 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 2,197$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.47 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Over | 46c | 2,167$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.99 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 1,781$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.14 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 49c | 1,781$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.14 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…19c6backed Under | 52c | 1,742$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.67 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 51c | 1,015$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.49 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 1,013$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.63 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 49c | 972$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.72 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 964$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.64 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Over | 48c | 946.66$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.26 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Over | 49c | 482$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.82 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 52c | 404.7$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.26 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 49c | 357$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.07 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 50c | 353$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.59 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 49c | 298.15$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 257.35$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…d549backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…efc4backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 122$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f9…dd4fbacked Under | 50c | 87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…e67abacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85c…3f74backed Over | 54c | 36.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 138 | 31.2%43 W · 95 L | -12.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Hornets won
- Lakers vs. HornetsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.