Middle East · resolved market
Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b40a0a282828620397099884a38a309476e02bbb52ce42bd0bc0da5e8c73f28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $214,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 383 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 39c | 22,556$8,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,818.29 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 68c | 9,628$6,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,075.01 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879a…bee8backed Yes | 18c | 6,409$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.59 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…7599backed Yes | 33c | 6,213$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 5,416$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 10c | 5,010$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.27 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 2c | 4,830$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 44c | 4,723$2,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,644.34 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 72c | 4,226$3,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.29 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed No | 50c | 3,423$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 3,304$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.39 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fb…89cebacked No | 52c | 3,106$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.32 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…f51abacked Yes | 63c | 2,742$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 79c | 2,520$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 38c | 2,504$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…c51ebacked Yes | 73c | 2,237$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8ec5backed Yes | 43c | 2,166$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee3…be17backed Yes | 49c | 2,100$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3190…3f74backed Yes | 5c | 2,045$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed No | 57c | 2,025$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.36 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…7706backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 67c | 1,996$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.36 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed No | 54c | 1,932$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed Yes | 49c | 1,906$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.69 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…1ad1backed Yes | 53c | 1,874$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 1,800$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 36c | 1,733$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.14 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…a9a6backed Yes | 6c | 1,654$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 61c | 1,627$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.21 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fcf1backed No | 44c | 1,607$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.94 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 41c | 1,531$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.02 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd90…68e6backed Yes | 78c | 1,467$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 24c | 1,450$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 3c | 1,433$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 9c | 1,429$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 66c | 1,392$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.59 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 1,377$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…b564backed Yes | 3c | 1,362$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed Yes | 42c | 1,327$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…9980backed No | 75c | 1,326$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a8…58cfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,309$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 42c | 1,286$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.62 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3420…300bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 43c | 1,214$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.57 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 64c | 1,186$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.52 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…9cabbacked Yes | 71c | 1,118$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…b90abacked Yes | 50c | 1,118$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 23c | 1,100$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.98 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Yes | 67c | 1,077$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 70c | 1,020$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 1,005$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.99 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5706…01c0backed No | 50c | 1,001$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 30c | 990$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 78c | 909.86$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.19 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 865.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…1430backed Yes | 6c | 825.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…0049backed Yes | 50c | 806.9$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 43c | 800$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.56 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 39c | 789.43$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.43 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 57c | 768.36$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed Yes | 62c | 758.64$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 33c | 738.42$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.74 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 41c | 718.82$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 50c | 711.97$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.98 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…b13abacked Yes | 68c | 703.46$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 56c | 700$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x790f…8ca5backed Yes | 52c | 699.99$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…dcf2backed Yes | 59c | 663.96$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…01babacked No | 39c | 641.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.03 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 6c | 630.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 43c | 624.35$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.63 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 41c | 613.51$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.17 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c614backed Yes | 66c | 610$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 58c | 607.94$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…4ea1backed Yes | 58c | 601.39$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…b717backed Yes | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed No | 33c | 597.81$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.55 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…102bbacked Yes | 40c | 591.73$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…1c27backed Yes | 66c | 589.72$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 10c | 573.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 53c | 570.3$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.28 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…df38backed No | 53c | 564.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.17 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 48c | 559.18$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed Yes | 31c | 534.09$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.01 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…8bbabacked Yes | 40c | 505.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 59c | 500.23$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.72 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…a135backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf101…b28abacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed Yes | 27c | 479.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…19a3backed Yes | 52c | 466.84$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 65c | 463.64$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 52c | 458.42$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.97 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…1f4bbacked Yes | 10c | 454.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +187%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…16dcbacked Yes | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 24c | 433.37$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 47c | 429.67$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.91 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.