TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,367 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,926$30 inLost-$29.761,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc425…9a71backed Yes17c1,471$250 inLost-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x497d…cf74backed Yes9c1,095$100 inLost-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed Yes14c938.04$134 inLost-$1341910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+58.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9619…a6c2backed Yes13c930.7$117 inLost-$116.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb633…0dd5backed Yes19c530.15$100 inLost-$1002821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc7e…06a2backed Yes10c500$50 inLost-$503444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed Yes13c493$64 inLost-$64.092850%14 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7f3…4064backed Yes22c390.61$86 inLost-$86.123256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9d3…246cbacked Yes13c333.76$45 inLost-$4514346.9%67 W · 76 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c313.63$25 inLost-$24.721,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2556…b00ebacked Yes9c233.33$20 inLost-$202842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0071…32dfbacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost-$203857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Yes16c214.84$35 inLost-$3513642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x254a…5b72backed Yes14c208.93$30 inLost-$29.73825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce2f…d648backed Yes11c200$22 inLost-$221030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+148.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No76c165.22$125 inWon+$39.738853.4%47 W · 41 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf79c…4ab6backed Yes15c164.55$25 inLost-$24.68650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes13c149.5$19 inLost-$18.897915.2%12 W · 67 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3846…029abacked Yes11c133$14 inLost-$14.134136.6%15 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77fa…c0bebacked Yes17c118.24$20 inLost-$20.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9386…cfe5backed Yes15c100$15 inLost-$152343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No65c20$13 inWon+$7.19543.2%41 W · 54 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.