TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,452 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes5c8,147$413 inLost-$412.631,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc03…1cbcbacked Yes0c4,000$12 inLost-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Yes7c2,217$165 inLost-$165.0622053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes5c2,098$101 inLost-$101.2422041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes4c1,711$77 inLost-$76.8140133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes6c1,456$86 inLost-$85.520352.2%106 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes5c1,250$60 inLost-$60.2128842.7%123 W · 165 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes4c1,131$45 inLost-$45.268350.6%42 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Yes5c999.99$51 inLost-$5119531.3%61 W · 134 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa9…d3bebacked Yes5c811.61$40 inLost-$40.491656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Yes8c454.51$38 inLost-$37.68961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3575…4f23backed Yes11c400.79$42 inLost-$42.11844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+85%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c342.98$18 inLost-$17.71894.5%4 W · 85 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed Yes6c318.46$20 inLost-$2015547.1%73 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Yes7c297.35$20 inLost-$207529.3%22 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes6c292$18 inLost-$18.12828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c268$18 inLost-$17.891,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes5c244.85$12 inLost-$12.2860944.8%273 W · 336 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.