NBA · resolved market

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b46d829f06ce14a4699c0736b9d61adce76c972b5d6e02081d76d8b0386b90b

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $91,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $92,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,403 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xabb8…bba3backed Yes	8c	27,403$2,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,179.78	172	51.7%89 W · 83 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes	23c	4,950$1,151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,151.04	815	29.4%240 W · 575 L	-37.0wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-43%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes	44c	2,575$1,128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,127.59	71	32.4%23 W · 48 L	-10.6wins	-0.15per pick	47cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes	8c	1,793$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.39	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919a…348cbacked Yes	3c	1,655$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa161…86fdbacked Yes	46c	1,529$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	1,516$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.43	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	8c	1,082$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.43	288	42.7%123 W · 165 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	3c	1,053$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.9	220	41.4%91 W · 129 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	169	42%71 W · 98 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked Yes	44c	1,000$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444	191	49.7%95 W · 96 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Yes	5c	930.2$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	75	29.3%22 W · 53 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	8c	889$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.26	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9909…b90cbacked Yes	46c	800$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	208	39.4%82 W · 126 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	3c	536.01$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	105	42.9%45 W · 60 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a9a…973cbacked Yes	49c	515.45$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	139	55.4%77 W · 62 L	+7.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9038…f74cbacked Yes	8c	512.5$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes	8c	493.83$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	309	45.3%140 W · 169 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a91…88e1backed Yes	7c	469.58$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.86	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa72c…a633backed Yes	8c	463.51$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.79	99	53.5%53 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Yes	8c	451.79$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	470	48.5%228 W · 242 L	-18.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes	9c	441.9$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.7	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No	65c	411.45$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.64	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd425…7518backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes	10c	397.09$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	337	30.3%102 W · 235 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27c8…2257backed Yes	54c	370.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	62	37.1%23 W · 39 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	3c	338.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes	7c	322.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.82	71	19.7%14 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Yes	45c	309.57$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.41	535	39.6%212 W · 323 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabce…9277backed Yes	51c	294.22$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.76	44	50%22 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	8c	283.9$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.33	609	44.8%273 W · 336 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	16c	265.89$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.05	306	16.7%51 W · 255 L	-36.5wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7d6d…c063backed Yes	8c	252.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fcc…25e1backed Yes	43c	240$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.2	95	54.7%52 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes	31c	235.68$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.48	353	52.4%185 W · 168 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes	44c	224.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	182	40.7%74 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba94…d340backed Yes	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	44c	216.94$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	117	23.9%28 W · 89 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Yes	43c	191.3$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.45	121	47.9%58 W · 63 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Yes	55c	182.15$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Yes	50c	156.6$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed0…5776backed Yes	30c	149.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.38	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bc1…06edbacked Yes	14c	139.35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	883	35.3%312 W · 571 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a9…faebbacked No	72c	135$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.16	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6076…f8fdbacked Yes	9c	125.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	203	46.3%94 W · 109 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Yes	29c	122.17$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.72	894	44.4%397 W · 497 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Yes	36c	121.05$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	487	40.7%198 W · 289 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7229…f56abacked Yes	11c	120$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	76	34.2%26 W · 50 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0a1…6daebacked Yes	45c	111.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	224	42.9%96 W · 128 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf702…d5d3backed Yes	47c	106.61$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	-4.9wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd182…f62ebacked Yes	15c	102.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc7…fe1cbacked Yes	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	117	44.4%52 W · 65 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x086a…1435backed Yes	27c	98.44$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.36	63	19%12 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes	43c	90$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.7	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…4f71backed Yes	53c	79$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	20c	73$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed No	53c	69.99$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.6	635	55.6%353 W · 282 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d02…de07backed Yes	37c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc53…71f2backed Yes	46c	43.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ca…8ed3backed Yes	46c	43.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fb3…c801backed Yes	50c	39.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	37.1%23 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2637…15b3backed Yes	46c	32.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb382…c498backed Yes	50c	32.04$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	61	45.9%28 W · 33 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes	45c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-23%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf97e…da44backed No	56c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+2.5wins	+0.31per pick	57cpaid	+70.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x81f7…eef5backed Yes	44c	24.72$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No	55c	22.22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	569	45.3%258 W · 311 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked No	52c	20.62$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Cup?this page
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Cup?Yes won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Cup?No won
Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event