AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b216697ef115ae484b1bfe42a75a95e8d6a1851582b644a46d2f6031a3121d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 7,423$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.16 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,775$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.54 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,241$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.23 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 6c | 1,811$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x768c…49c3backed Yes | 7c | 1,570$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…9722backed Yes | 9c | 1,063$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 6c | 782.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…8c95backed Yes | 7c | 640.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…1041backed Yes | 7c | 557.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5d…8583backed Yes | 15c | 526.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dba…10e2backed Yes | 7c | 501.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f73…acefbacked Yes | 16c | 412.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 7c | 405.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…1acfbacked Yes | 4c | 356.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x829d…dffdbacked Yes | 27c | 346.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x827e…93febacked Yes | 7c | 337.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e68…a66abacked No | 74c | 329.49$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 10c | 325.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 3c | 319.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…2a7bbacked Yes | 9c | 298.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 7c | 297.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 8c | 286.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…9f18backed Yes | 17c | 280.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…ab55backed Yes | 10c | 276.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e3a8backed Yes | 5c | 271.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…64c3backed Yes | 17c | 243.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 5c | 231.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…9edcbacked Yes | 12c | 228$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 13c | 222.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 8c | 199.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 7c | 197.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…6b0dbacked Yes | 14c | 194.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 187$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 8c | 181.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d9…e8c1backed Yes | 9c | 173.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd329…a401backed Yes | 11c | 168.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 164.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4769…a673backed Yes | 23c | 116.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 112.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2562…a804backed Yes | 30c | 43.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 63c | 36.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.