AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0804c98fb26288399dcd8d1f5105c27f7f8d548a4d8a993c8ee87c685b1630ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 5,453$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 5c | 1,117$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 7c | 1,025$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…48e6backed No | 7c | 999.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 919.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 2c | 900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 8c | 898.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 8c | 617$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 614.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…2a7bbacked No | 11c | 524.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 14c | 495.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 5c | 438.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 7c | 358.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 75c | 343$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 11c | 255.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 6c | 216$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…279ebacked No | 8c | 213.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked No | 9c | 212.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…cf1fbacked No | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 116.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 91.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 13c | 77.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.6wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…157ebacked Yes | 50c | 28.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?this page
- Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.