World Politics · resolved market
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3602476532b7c05969580330519f2004fd4397402516af91d1023b7d56ea7ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 4c | 6,896$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 1c | 5,703$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf78…a054backed Yes | 12c | 5,654$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d96…000fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,402$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,950$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.85 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…64bdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,588$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8720backed Yes | 1c | 2,446$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed Yes | 7c | 1,930$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…6e9cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,874$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,476$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,418$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 13c | 1,361$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.72 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes | 74c | 1,309$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.24 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…7dfebacked Yes | 19c | 1,104$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa525…1e7bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,104$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.27 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 27c | 999.95$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.65 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 58c | 950.61$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.23 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…8e96backed Yes | 12c | 862.1$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 722.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…ac0fbacked Yes | 16c | 662.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed72…81f5backed Yes | 42c | 620.57$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 55c | 458.92$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.02 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 403.91$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 22c | 387.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.7 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 375.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6074…ebcdbacked Yes | 9c | 352.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e9…73cebacked Yes | 13c | 304.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848e…1076backed Yes | 4c | 270.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d64…b4c0backed Yes | 58c | 214$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…bb9bbacked Yes | 26c | 192.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 177.97$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 58c | 173.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 72c | 169.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 76c | 169.49$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.52 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…a0fbbacked Yes | 73c | 159.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 59c | 141.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Yes | 76c | 65.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…e56cbacked No | 43c | 56.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 47.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x062f…aaeabacked Yes | 39c | 45.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 75c | 37.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6071…e933backed Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 22.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?this page
- Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Revival (Vazrazhdane) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will United Left (BSP) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Velichie (Velichie) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.