World Politics · resolved market
Will Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4886f98c40297ab2a8ed42a0bd7280a8c1b763f62e0fefc3139ca5dca8bddfc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7664…2e50backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 15c | 2,320$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed No | 72c | 1,169$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 72c | 1,129$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…ca57backed Yes | 16c | 1,044$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 13c | 955$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 4c | 953.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 12c | 952$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed Yes | 28c | 772$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 28c | 771$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked Yes | 28c | 755$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 12c | 325$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 20c | 283.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…9c11backed Yes | 20c | 230.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 10c | 206.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…ab14backed Yes | 12c | 186.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 166.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…485abacked Yes | 18c | 132.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…cb87backed Yes | 12c | 129.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 128.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 80c | 113.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…f131backed Yes | 15c | 96.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…ca54backed Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…ef90backed Yes | 14c | 70.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad79…226dbacked Yes | 14c | 69.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…051cbacked Yes | 31c | 54.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 77c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?this page
- Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Revival (Vazrazhdane) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will United Left (BSP) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Velichie (Velichie) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.